Blue Gold Ltd (BGL)

Market price: $0.14

1 valuation method

• EV / EBITDA: $0.60 to $4.74 (midpoint $2.34)

What today’s price implies

For this DCF to equal today's price instead, free cash flow would have to grow -22.0% a year over that first 3-year period. That is the market's assumption, not ours.

How each method works

EV / EBITDA: $0.60 to $4.74 (midpoint $2.34)

Values the whole business at a peer multiple of its cash operating earnings (EBITDA) — the workhorse comparison for capital-intensive, profitable companies.

How it’s calculated

We take the company's cash operating earnings over the last twelve months (EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and multiply them by the range of EV/EBITDA multiples comparable companies currently trade at. That gives a value for the whole business (enterprise value); we then subtract net debt and anything owed ahead of common shareholders — minority interests in subsidiaries and preferred stock — and divide by shares outstanding to get a per-share range.

Why it fits this industry

Miners' earnings whipsaw with commodity prices and impairments; cash operating earnings give a steadier basis for comparing producers.

Reading this bar

The bar is the per-share value range this method implies: a conservative low, a central estimate, and an optimistic high. If the current price sits below the bar, the market is pricing the shares below what this method's inputs suggest; if it sits above, the market is pricing them higher. No single bar is a verdict — methods disagree for good reasons, so read the whole field together. A company can also deserve a multiple above or below its peers — faster growth, stronger margins, or higher risk all justify honest gaps.

EV / EBITDA = (6.63/10.03/14.74)× ebitda 19,173,226 ≈ 127,088,674.81/192,216,425.39/282,549,362.95 (enterprise_value); enterprise_value -> per share: equity (22,522,208.81/87,649,959.39/177,982,896.95) / 37,532,101 shares [EV bridge: minus net debt 104,566,466]

5 methods not shown

• EV / Revenue: revenue unavailable — cannot form EV / Revenue
• EV / Gross Profit: gross_profit unavailable — cannot form EV / Gross Profit
• P / E: diluted EPS is non-positive — P/E is not meaningful for a loss-making period
• P / B: book value per share is non-positive (negative common equity) — P/B is not meaningful
• DCF (FCFF): DCF input(s) unavailable (revenue_cagr) — cannot build FCFF

Limited data — fewer than three valuation methods could be formed for this company; showing every method we can stand behind.

Debt is most of what funds this company — its shares are about 5% of its total enterprise value. The enterprise-value bar here (1) value the whole business and then subtract the debt, so a small difference in the business's value becomes a large one per share. That is arithmetic, not a fault in the estimate, but it is why those ranges are wide.