B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS)

Market price: $2.06

1 valuation method

• EV / EBITDA: $0.00 to $17.51 (midpoint $12.52)

What today’s price implies

This model grows free cash flow at the company's own recent rate of 1.4% a year for 3 years, then eases it down over the next 7 years to 2.5% — the rate a mature economy grows at, which is the standard ceiling for a perpetuity. For this DCF to equal today's price instead, free cash flow would have to grow -5.8% a year over that first 3-year period. That is the market's assumption, not ours.

How each method works

EV / EBITDA: $0.00 to $17.51 (midpoint $12.52)

Values the whole business at a peer multiple of its cash operating earnings (EBITDA) — the workhorse comparison for capital-intensive, profitable companies.

How it’s calculated

We take the company's cash operating earnings over the last twelve months (EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and multiply them by the range of EV/EBITDA multiples comparable companies currently trade at. That gives a value for the whole business (enterprise value); we then subtract net debt and anything owed ahead of common shareholders — minority interests in subsidiaries and preferred stock — and divide by shares outstanding to get a per-share range.

Why it fits this industry

EBITDA strips out financing and accounting choices, so two companies with different debt loads or depreciation schedules can be compared on the cash their operations actually generate.

Reading this bar

The bar is the per-share value range this method implies: a conservative low, a central estimate, and an optimistic high. If the current price sits below the bar, the market is pricing the shares below what this method's inputs suggest; if it sits above, the market is pricing them higher. No single bar is a verdict — methods disagree for good reasons, so read the whole field together. A company can also deserve a multiple above or below its peers — faster growth, stronger margins, or higher risk all justify honest gaps.

EV / EBITDA = (10.48/23.58/26.82)× ebitda 125,068,000 ≈ 1,310,930,473.02/2,948,589,413.58/3,354,061,092.87 (enterprise_value); enterprise_value -> per share: equity (0/1,017,884,413.58/1,423,356,092.87) / 81,275,671 shares [EV bridge: minus net debt 1,930,705,000]

5 methods not shown

• EV / Revenue: implied equity value at the midpoint is non-positive (-361,221,236.15) — enterprise value does not exceed net debt; no price bar
• EV / Gross Profit: implied equity value at the midpoint is non-positive (-70,631,389.99) — enterprise value does not exceed net debt; no price bar
• P / E: diluted EPS is non-positive — P/E is not meaningful for a loss-making period
• P / B: the market prices this company far outside its sector's P / B range (its own multiple is 0.42 vs a sector band of 3.03–5.62) — a sector-average bar would be misleading here, so it is withheld
• DCF (FCFF): implied equity value at the midpoint is non-positive (-732,562,712.51) — enterprise value does not exceed net debt; no price bar

Limited data — fewer than three valuation methods could be formed for this company; showing every method we can stand behind.

Debt is most of what funds this company — its shares are about 8% of its total enterprise value. The enterprise-value bar here (1) value the whole business and then subtract the debt, so a small difference in the business's value becomes a large one per share. That is arithmetic, not a fault in the estimate, but it is why those ranges are wide.