Cadiz Inc (CDZI)

Market price: $4.72

1 valuation method

• Dividend Discount Model (DDM): $3.80 to $6.72 (midpoint $4.88)

How each method works

Dividend Discount Model (DDM): $3.80 to $6.72 (midpoint $4.88)

Values the stock as the present value of its expected dividend stream — fitting for stable, dividend-anchored payers like banks, insurers, and utilities.

How it’s calculated

We take the company's dividend and grow it in three stages: three years at the rate its own retained earnings can support (the share of profit it keeps, multiplied by the return it earns on equity), then a seven-year glide down to a long-run rate, and that rate for ever after. The whole stream is discounted back to today at the company's cost of equity. The range comes from flexing that cost of equity.

Why it fits this industry

Regulated utilities pay steady, slowly-growing dividends by design — the classic case for valuing the dividend stream directly.

Reading this bar

The bar is the per-share value range this method implies: a conservative low, a central estimate, and an optimistic high. If the current price sits below the bar, the market is pricing the shares below what this method's inputs suggest; if it sits above, the market is pricing them higher. No single bar is a verdict — methods disagree for good reasons, so read the whole field together. This bar values only the cash actually paid out. A company that keeps most of its profit is building value the dividend stream does not capture, so its DDM bar tends to sit below the price — the pattern is strongest where the payout ratio is lowest. It is one anchor among several, and for a low payer the earnings-based bars carry more of the story. The long-run rate is the same one the discounted-cash-flow bar uses, so the two do not assume different futures for the same company.

DDM: D₀ 0.06 grown at 25.00% a year for 3y, then eased to 2.50% over 7y and held there, discounted at Ke 6.40%±1.00% => per-share 3.80/4.88/6.72

6 methods not shown

• EV / EBITDA: EBITDA is non-positive — an EBITDA multiple yields no meaningful enterprise value (loss-making at the EBITDA line)
• EV / Revenue: minority interest / preferred stock rank ahead of common but could not be read — cannot bridge enterprise value to equity without overstating what common owns
• EV / Gross Profit: minority interest / preferred stock rank ahead of common but could not be read — cannot bridge enterprise value to equity without overstating what common owns
• P / E: diluted EPS is non-positive — P/E is not meaningful for a loss-making period
• P / B: the market prices this company far outside its sector's P / B range (its own multiple is 85.68 vs a sector band of 1.70–1.98) — a sector-average bar would be misleading here, so it is withheld
• DCF (FCFF): base unlevered FCF is non-positive (-34,457,293.93) — nothing to discount; a standard FCFF DCF does not apply

Limited data — fewer than three valuation methods could be formed for this company; showing every method we can stand behind.