Niu Technologies (NIU)

Market price: $1.89

2 valuation methods

What today’s price implies

the price is below what this model gives even at -50.0% annual growth

How each method works

EV / EBITDA: $2.66 to $3.79 (midpoint $3.23)

Values the whole business at a peer multiple of its cash operating earnings (EBITDA) — the workhorse comparison for capital-intensive, profitable companies.

How it’s calculated
We take the company's cash operating earnings over the last twelve months (EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and multiply them by the range of EV/EBITDA multiples comparable companies currently trade at. That gives a value for the whole business (enterprise value); we then subtract net debt and anything owed ahead of common shareholders — minority interests in subsidiaries and preferred stock — and divide by shares outstanding to get a per-share range.
Why it fits this industry
Manufacturers differ widely in plant age and depreciation policy; EBITDA puts capital-intensive industrial peers on level footing.
Reading this bar
The bar is the per-share value range this method implies: a conservative low, a central estimate, and an optimistic high. If the current price sits below the bar, the market is pricing the shares below what this method's inputs suggest; if it sits above, the market is pricing them higher. No single bar is a verdict — methods disagree for good reasons, so read the whole field together. A company can also deserve a multiple above or below its peers — faster growth, stronger margins, or higher risk all justify honest gaps.

EV / EBITDA = (33.43/47.76/62.09)× ebitda 3,160,273.21 ≈ 105,654,253.94/150,934,648.48/196,215,043.02 (enterprise_value); enterprise_value -> per share: equity (212,410,008.34/257,690,402.89/302,970,797.43) / 79,857,349 shares [EV bridge: minus net debt -106,755,754.41]

DCF (FCFF): $10.29 to $12.51 (midpoint $11.28)

Discounts the company's projected free cash flows back to today at its cost of capital — an intrinsic value built from the company's own reported figures rather than peer multiples or analyst forecasts, with capital spending charged at its three-year average share of revenue.

How it’s calculated
We project the company's free cash flow — operating profit after tax, plus depreciation, minus investment in equipment and working capital — forward over ten years in three stages: three years at the growth it has actually achieved over its last five financial years, a seven-year glide down towards a long-run rate, and that rate for ever after. Each year is discounted back to today at the company's weighted cost of capital. The low and high ends discount at slightly higher and lower rates. Capital spending is charged at its average share of revenue over the last three financial years, not at the latest year alone, and the figures panel shows those three years so the assumption is visible. Beyond the projection, where growth has settled to the long-run rate, investment is sized to that rate and to the return the company earns on capital rather than carried over from the years it was still expanding — a company growing 2.5% for ever does not keep spending like one growing at its current pace.
Why it fits this industry
This is the one bar built entirely from the company's own fundamentals — no peer comparison at all — so it anchors the field with an intrinsic, assumptions-driven estimate. It also uses only what the company has already reported: no analyst forecasts go into it, which is why it can differ sharply from published estimates built on projected earnings.
Reading this bar
The bar is the per-share value range this method implies: a conservative low, a central estimate, and an optimistic high. If the current price sits below the bar, the market is pricing the shares below what this method's inputs suggest; if it sits above, the market is pricing them higher. No single bar is a verdict — methods disagree for good reasons, so read the whole field together. DCF is sensitive to its assumptions: small changes in growth or discount rate move the answer a lot, which is what the wide low-high spread reflects. The largest single assumption is capital spending. A company whose spending has risen steeply — building factories, data centres or networks — is charged that heavier spending across the ten projected years, while the revenue it is meant to produce is not assumed, only what the company has already grown. That combination places this bar below the market price for many companies in a heavy investment phase, and the three years in the figures panel show how far the company's spending has moved.
What it assumes about the future
the price is below what this model gives even at -50.0% annual growth

DCF (FCFF): base FCFF 50,946,537.83 grown at 11.10% a year for 3y, then eased to 2.50% over 7y and held there, discounted at WACC 12.20%±1.00% => EV 714,816,481/794,415,803/892,596,676 [capex 3-yr average margin 3.60% (FY2023 3.00%, FY2024 3.60%, FY2025 4.10%) x revenue 599,440,484.91 = 21,471,747.25]; enterprise_value -> per share: equity (821,572,234.97/901,171,557.38/999,352,430.24) / 79,857,349 shares [EV bridge: minus net debt -106,755,754.41]

4 methods not shown

Limited data — fewer than three valuation methods could be formed for this company; showing every method we can stand behind.