Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL)

Market price: $1.21

1 valuation method

• DCF (FCFF): $6.82 to $8.69 (midpoint $7.62)

What today’s price implies

the price is below what this model gives even at -50.0% annual growth

How each method works

DCF (FCFF): $6.82 to $8.69 (midpoint $7.62)

Discounts the company's projected free cash flows back to today at its cost of capital — an intrinsic value built from the company's own reported figures rather than peer multiples or analyst forecasts, with capital spending charged at its three-year average share of revenue.

How it’s calculated

We project the company's free cash flow — operating profit after tax, plus depreciation, minus investment in equipment and working capital — forward over ten years in three stages: three years at the growth it has actually achieved over its last five financial years, a seven-year glide down towards a long-run rate, and that rate for ever after. Each year is discounted back to today at the company's weighted cost of capital. The low and high ends discount at slightly higher and lower rates. Capital spending is charged at its average share of revenue over the last three financial years, not at the latest year alone, and the figures panel shows those three years so the assumption is visible. Beyond the projection, where growth has settled to the long-run rate, investment is sized to that rate and to the return the company earns on capital rather than carried over from the years it was still expanding — a company growing 2.5% for ever does not keep spending like one growing at its current pace.

Why it fits this industry

This is the one bar built entirely from the company's own fundamentals — no peer comparison at all — so it anchors the field with an intrinsic, assumptions-driven estimate. It also uses only what the company has already reported: no analyst forecasts go into it, which is why it can differ sharply from published estimates built on projected earnings.

Reading this bar

The bar is the per-share value range this method implies: a conservative low, a central estimate, and an optimistic high. If the current price sits below the bar, the market is pricing the shares below what this method's inputs suggest; if it sits above, the market is pricing them higher. No single bar is a verdict — methods disagree for good reasons, so read the whole field together. DCF is sensitive to its assumptions: small changes in growth or discount rate move the answer a lot, which is what the wide low-high spread reflects. The largest single assumption is capital spending. A company whose spending has risen steeply — building factories, data centres or networks — is charged that heavier spending across the ten projected years, while the revenue it is meant to produce is not assumed, only what the company has already grown. That combination places this bar below the market price for many companies in a heavy investment phase, and the three years in the figures panel show how far the company's spending has moved.

What it assumes about the future

the price is below what this model gives even at -50.0% annual growth

DCF (FCFF): base FCFF 46,407,998.23 grown at -10.00% a year for 3y, then eased to 2.50% over 7y and held there, discounted at WACC 9.40%±1.00% => EV 325,827,621/366,898,619/421,491,099 [capex 3-yr average margin 7.80% (FY2022 0.50%, FY2024 22.40%, FY2025 0.40%) x revenue 980,000 = 76,351.77]; enterprise_value -> per share: equity (350,297,621.06/391,368,618.94/445,961,099.41) / 51,327,943 shares [EV bridge: minus net debt -29,887,000, minus minority interest & preferred 5,417,000]

5 methods not shown

• EV / EBITDA: EBITDA is non-positive — an EBITDA multiple yields no meaningful enterprise value (loss-making at the EBITDA line)
• EV / Revenue: the market prices this company far outside its sector's EV / Revenue range (its own multiple is 38.40 vs a sector band of 5.54–10.30) — a sector-average bar would be misleading here, so it is withheld
• EV / Gross Profit: gross_profit unavailable — cannot form EV / Gross Profit
• P / E: diluted EPS is non-positive — P/E is not meaningful for a loss-making period
• P / B: the market prices this company far outside its sector's P / B range (its own multiple is 0.82 vs a sector band of 5.75–10.69) — a sector-average bar would be misleading here, so it is withheld

Pre-profit company — earnings-based methods not meaningful.

Limited data — fewer than three valuation methods could be formed for this company; showing every method we can stand behind.