Top Ships Inc. (TOPS)

Market price: $0.29

3 valuation methods

What today’s price implies

This model grows free cash flow at the company's own recent rate of 6.0% a year for 3 years, then eases it down over the next 7 years to 2.5% — the rate a mature economy grows at, which is the standard ceiling for a perpetuity. For this DCF to equal today's price instead, free cash flow would have to grow -14.8% a year over that first 3-year period. That is the market's assumption, not ours.

How each method works

DCF (FCFF): $25.48 to $33.06 (midpoint $29.04)

Discounts the company's projected free cash flows back to today at its cost of capital — an intrinsic value built from the company's own reported figures rather than peer multiples or analyst forecasts, with capital spending charged at its three-year average share of revenue.

How it’s calculated
We project the company's free cash flow — operating profit after tax, plus depreciation, minus investment in equipment and working capital — forward over ten years in three stages: three years at the growth it has actually achieved over its last five financial years, a seven-year glide down towards a long-run rate, and that rate for ever after. Each year is discounted back to today at the company's weighted cost of capital. The low and high ends discount at slightly higher and lower rates. Capital spending is charged at its average share of revenue over the last three financial years, not at the latest year alone, and the figures panel shows those three years so the assumption is visible. Beyond the projection, where growth has settled to the long-run rate, investment is sized to that rate and to the return the company earns on capital rather than carried over from the years it was still expanding — a company growing 2.5% for ever does not keep spending like one growing at its current pace.
Why it fits this industry
This is the one bar built entirely from the company's own fundamentals — no peer comparison at all — so it anchors the field with an intrinsic, assumptions-driven estimate. It also uses only what the company has already reported: no analyst forecasts go into it, which is why it can differ sharply from published estimates built on projected earnings.
Reading this bar
The bar is the per-share value range this method implies: a conservative low, a central estimate, and an optimistic high. If the current price sits below the bar, the market is pricing the shares below what this method's inputs suggest; if it sits above, the market is pricing them higher. No single bar is a verdict — methods disagree for good reasons, so read the whole field together. DCF is sensitive to its assumptions: small changes in growth or discount rate move the answer a lot, which is what the wide low-high spread reflects. The largest single assumption is capital spending. A company whose spending has risen steeply — building factories, data centres or networks — is charged that heavier spending across the ten projected years, while the revenue it is meant to produce is not assumed, only what the company has already grown. That combination places this bar below the market price for many companies in a heavy investment phase, and the three years in the figures panel show how far the company's spending has moved.
What it assumes about the future
This model grows free cash flow at the company's own recent rate of 6.0% a year for 3 years, then eases it down over the next 7 years to 2.5% — the rate a mature economy grows at, which is the standard ceiling for a perpetuity. For this DCF to equal today's price instead, free cash flow would have to grow -14.8% a year over that first 3-year period. That is the market's assumption, not ours.

DCF (FCFF): base FCFF 57,584,666.67 grown at 6.00% a year for 3y, then eased to 2.50% over 7y and held there, discounted at WACC 16.90%±1.00% => EV 314,094,474/330,597,221/349,172,748 [capex 3-yr average margin 3.90% (FY2023 0.00%, FY2024 0.00%, FY2025 11.60%) x revenue 80,415,000 = 3,103,333.33]; enterprise_value -> per share: equity (117,853,474.35/134,356,220.65/152,931,748.35) / 4,626,197 shares [EV bridge: minus net debt 196,240,000, minus minority interest & preferred 1000]

EV / EBITDA: $13.58 to $82.63 (midpoint $39.71)

Values the whole business at a peer multiple of its cash operating earnings (EBITDA) — the workhorse comparison for capital-intensive, profitable companies.

How it’s calculated
We take the company's cash operating earnings over the last twelve months (EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and multiply them by the range of EV/EBITDA multiples comparable companies currently trade at. That gives a value for the whole business (enterprise value); we then subtract net debt and anything owed ahead of common shareholders — minority interests in subsidiaries and preferred stock — and divide by shares outstanding to get a per-share range.
Why it fits this industry
EBITDA strips out financing and accounting choices, so two companies with different debt loads or depreciation schedules can be compared on the cash their operations actually generate.
Reading this bar
The bar is the per-share value range this method implies: a conservative low, a central estimate, and an optimistic high. If the current price sits below the bar, the market is pricing the shares below what this method's inputs suggest; if it sits above, the market is pricing them higher. No single bar is a verdict — methods disagree for good reasons, so read the whole field together. A company can also deserve a multiple above or below its peers — faster growth, stronger margins, or higher risk all justify honest gaps.

EV / EBITDA = (6.51/9.54/14.53)× ebitda 39,813,000 ≈ 259,046,293.47/379,939,370.92/578,502,364.86 (enterprise_value); enterprise_value -> per share: equity (62,805,293.47/183,698,370.92/382,261,364.86) / 4,626,197 shares [EV bridge: minus net debt 196,240,000, minus minority interest & preferred 1000]

EV / Revenue: $5.21 to $89.66 (midpoint $62.33)

Values the whole business at a peer multiple of sales — used when earnings are thin, volatile, or not yet meaningful, so revenue is the most reliable yardstick.

How it’s calculated
We multiply the company's last-twelve-month revenue by the range of EV/Revenue multiples its peer group trades at, subtract net debt and any minority interests or preferred stock ranking ahead of common shareholders, and divide by shares outstanding for a per-share range.
Why it fits this industry
When profits are thin, volatile, or still to come, revenue is the most dependable figure a company reports — this method values the business on the scale of what it actually sells.
Reading this bar
The bar is the per-share value range this method implies: a conservative low, a central estimate, and an optimistic high. If the current price sits below the bar, the market is pricing the shares below what this method's inputs suggest; if it sits above, the market is pricing them higher. No single bar is a verdict — methods disagree for good reasons, so read the whole field together. A pound of revenue is worth more at a high margin than a low one, so the peer group here is narrowed to companies earning a similar margin wherever enough of them exist. Where too few do, the bar falls back to the wider group and is the bluntest of the multiples — weigh it alongside the earnings-based bars.

EV / Revenue = (2.74/6.03/7.60)× revenue 80,415,000 ≈ 220,321,371.16/484,577,269.27/611,008,960.61 (enterprise_value); enterprise_value -> per share: equity (24,080,371.16/288,336,269.27/414,767,960.61) / 4,626,197 shares [EV bridge: minus net debt 196,240,000, minus minority interest & preferred 1000]

3 methods not shown

Debt is most of what funds this company — its shares are about 1% of its total enterprise value. The enterprise-value bars here (3) value the whole business and then subtract the debt, so a small difference in the business's value becomes a large one per share. That is arithmetic, not a fault in the estimate, but it is why those ranges are wide.